Why your Theory of Change needs more than good intentions

A group of young people (two men and a woman) sitting on a bench, with young girl looking at the camera and smiling.

How to build a clear, measurable pathway from intention to impact

The clarity gap

Purpose-led organisations are often clear on why they exist – but less clear on how change actually happens. That gap between purpose and impact is where a Theory of Change becomes essential.

It’s a practical tool that helps leaders map the steps between what they do and the outcomes and impact they want to see. When done well, it connects strategy to evidence and helps teams stay focused on what really matters.

What is a Theory of Change?

A Theory of Change (ToC) is a structured way to describe how and why a desired change is expected to happen in a particular context. It lays out:

– The problem you’re addressing
– The interventions you’ll deliver
– The short- and medium-term results you expect
– The long-term goal you’re working toward
– The assumptions and risks that underpin your logic

At ImpactInstitute, we often describe this as a five-stage journey:

This model helps organisations move beyond activity-based reporting to impact-driven strategy.

 

Who is the change for?

Your Theory of Change should be built with your end beneficiaries in mind – those whose lives you aim to improve. But it’s also for your internal teams, partners, and external stakeholders who need to understand how your work delivers on your purpose.

Think about your program teams, executives, funders, and community partners. A strong ToC helps align everyone around a shared vision and strategy.

Case study: New Zealand Food Network

The New Zealand Food Network (NZFN) was created to tackle food insecurity at scale. Its purpose is to ensure that every New Zealander has access to healthy, nutritious food – especially those in vulnerable communities.

NZFN’s Theory of Change is clear and actionable:

– Context: Rising food insecurity and fragmented food distribution systems
– Intervention: Centralised food collection and redistribution to frontline charities
– Short-term results: Increased efficiency, reduced waste, and improved access to food
– Medium-term results: Stronger community networks and better health outcomes
– Big goal: A more equitable and resilient food system across New Zealand

It’s a powerful example of how a well-structured Theory of Change can guide strategy, operations, and measurement – without overcomplicating the process.

Read our case study to learn more about our impact work together.

Building your own theory of change

If you’re looking to build a Theory of Change that actually works, here’s where to start:

1. Define the problem: Be specific about who is affected and how
2. Map your interventions: What are you doing, and why?
3. Clarify outcomes: What changes do you expect, and when?
4. Test your assumptions: What needs to be true for success?
5. Identify risks: What could derail your impact?

Stakeholder engagement is key. So is being honest about what you can influence—and what you can’t.

From framework to measurement

A Theory of Change is the foundation for impact measurement. It helps you:

– Choose meaningful indicators
– Track progress across time horizons
– Communicate results with clarity
– Improve programs based on evidence

Without it, measurement can feel disconnected. With it, you’ve got a roadmap that links your purpose to real-world outcomes.

From framework to activation

Once you’ve built your Theory of Change, it’s time to put it to work:

  • Communicate internally: Align your team around the purpose and strategy
  • Celebrate wins: Use it to recognise progress when parts of the ToC are realised
  • Communicate externally: Show stakeholders how you’re delivering on your purpose
  • Guide storytelling: Use it to shape the kinds of stories you tell about your impact

A Theory of Change is a strategic tool that should live in your culture, your communications, and your decision-making.

Make it count

A Theory of Change helps purpose-driven organisations turn clarity into confidence. It’s not about ticking boxes – it’s about making sure your work leads to the change you care about.

Whether you’re launching a new initiative or scaling an existing one, your ToC should be your strategic compass. Make it visible. Make it actionable. Make it count.

 

Need help turning purpose into measurable impact?

We work with purpose-led organisations to build clear, actionable Theories of Change and impact measurement frameworks. If you’re ready to align your strategy, engage stakeholders, and tell powerful stories of change – get in touch. Let’s make your impact count.